Mixed Use / Mixed Results

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Jim O'Bryan
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Jim O'Bryan » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:26 am

Matthew Lee wrote:
Jim O'Bryan wrote:the facts are 85% of artificial attempts to bring back the center of towns and cities fail, within a year of removing government funds to sustain them.


Hi Jim,

Was this a number the other gentleman was saying as a fact or is this from a study somewhere? Would definitely be curious where this number comes from because it seems awfully vague and awfully high. For example, what is the definition of an "artificial attempt"? What is the definition of "center"? I would love to read the study that came up with this number. Thanks!



Matt

I can go back and ask the person. It was a light and long two hour discussion about many things. I was not demanding any proof of anything but instead looking at various actual projects that are failing or still born like Downtown Cleveland, and Lakewood. We could see that it would matter if it was the middle of a small town in Iowa that completely lost its job base or not, could be thrown into it.

Also we could ask where places like German Village figures into it. Is that a center of city redevelopment or not? Is Ohio City a center of city redevelopment or not? WE were actually speaking of many things like "Mainstreet" as well would be the first failure to redevelop the center of Lakewood. Did it actually redevelop Milan, Ohio? Chardon? Niles? Also does this even matter with urban community as opposed to a farming community? Many variations in the equation.

What we see here in Lakewood is basically a small group of would be "planners" more hobby than background completely fail again and again in their development dreams and wishes getting more and more desperate until finally selling off Lakewood's largest asset to claim some sort of success. But to get back to the point of this discussion while Mark raises interesting points on funding, we as residents should never forget, that as a community we have already spent and lost $200+ Million and another $100 million over the next ten years, and all of the value of the land and equipment before we even break ground on this amazing new center of of the city, DowntowN, Lakewood One whatever it is called.

We also have City Hall repeatedly misrepresenting not just the values but the return in an effort to push us to this point of no return, on a project they finally admit will lose about a $1 million a year. So while Mark asks the important questions I would ask for all residents to take the real $$$$ numbers, and move those numbers into the safest form of holding possible, and see just how bad City Hall and Council have done on this crap shoot. A crap shoot that will continue to cost us millions of losses over the decade or longer with abatement, shared development cost, and potential other loses all in an effort to make a small handful of people look successful at pulling the wool over our eyes.

There is real reason why City Hall continues to say no to public records requests, destroying records, and cover-ups the largest failure in Lakewood's history.

We were played, and they knew they were playing us all along, they just never figured anyone in Lakewood being smart enough for long enough to catch them.

Matt i will ask where his figures come from, but I would ask you, can you name any that are 1 successful, and more importantly bring in more than they cost to do? I cannot think of any.

.


Jim O'Bryan
Lakewood Resident

"The very act of observing disturbs the system."
Werner Heisenberg

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If not, don't worry. Just forget about it."
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Matthew Lee
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Matthew Lee » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:18 am

Jim O'Bryan wrote:Matt i will ask where his figures come from, but I would ask you, can you name any that are 1 successful, and more importantly bring in more than they cost to do? I cannot think of any.


Hard for me to say as I have no idea what the definition of "artificial" is. What is an "artificial" attempt vs a "non-artifical" attempt?

We throw numbers around like 85% yet have no real insight into what that number actually is. If we can define it and clarify it, then I am glad to look and see if there are examples. As it is, I have no idea what an "artificial" attempt actually means.


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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Jim O'Bryan » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:51 pm

Matthew Lee wrote:
Jim O'Bryan wrote:Matt i will ask where his figures come from, but I would ask you, can you name any that are 1 successful, and more importantly bring in more than they cost to do? I cannot think of any.


Hard for me to say as I have no idea what the definition of "artificial" is. What is an "artificial" attempt vs a "non-artifical" attempt?

We throw numbers around like 85% yet have no real insight into what that number actually is. If we can define it and clarify it, then I am glad to look and see if there are examples. As it is, I have no idea what an "artificial" attempt actually means.



Matt

I sent a note out, and will try to trace his numbers down. It seemed high to me at the time, but I also see not many places where it has worked. I wished I had questioned it and where it was out of, but the person was pretty well versed on CDCs, Cleveland Foundation, and other aspects of seeding growth.

I would say artificial is using Tax Abatement, Government funding etc. to spur growth and development.

To me a perfect example is what is going on all over the county. The county continues to shrink, yet Cleveland, Lakewood and other people are in an all out war of whack-a-mole to get people in.

Back when I was working with the Cleveland Foundation I was looking at plans to give home buyers in "Greater University Circle" up to 30 years tax abatement to buy and move in. But with the whack-a-mole county, we have people slowing down on moving there and going for 25 or 20 year in Slavic Village, Ohio City, etc.

Where have you seen tax abatement and artificial seeding work? Silicon Valley, actually that was well underway on its own. Olde Town in Chicago, well on its way before it was accelerated and has since stalled out. Downtown Akron? Possibly, but that too has seemed to stall.

Of course would it have stalled no matter what? Can't answer that.

.


Jim O'Bryan
Lakewood Resident

"The very act of observing disturbs the system."
Werner Heisenberg

"If anything I've said seems useful to you, I'm glad.
If not, don't worry. Just forget about it."
His Holiness The Dalai Lama
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Jim O'Bryan » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:56 pm

Matt

While waiting for answers I dug into some facts I could find through a couple different sources including Levin College of Urban Studies.

Cuyahoga County is actually losing roughly 15 people a day, -28,165 over 5 years.

While many like to speak of how fast Downtown Cleveland is growing, nearing 5,250 residents with millions in tiffs and hundreds of millions in projects, the rate of growth is barely a nudge on what the City of Cleveland is losing, and marketing studies would show that 5,250 residents is barely enough to justify a small grocery store. Which would be underlined by Heinen's Downtown being the worst performing Henien's in the chain.

Image

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Jim O'Bryan
Lakewood Resident

"The very act of observing disturbs the system."
Werner Heisenberg

"If anything I've said seems useful to you, I'm glad.
If not, don't worry. Just forget about it."
His Holiness The Dalai Lama
Matthew Lee
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Matthew Lee » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:41 pm

Jim O'Bryan wrote:Which would be underlined by Heinen's Downtown being the worst performing Henien's in the chain.


Hi Jim, appreciate digging on the numbers but wondering where the above info came from. I did some, albeit very quick, Googling and could not find anything documenting the above statement. Is this something you know from others or is it published somewhere?

My apologies if I seem harsh with some of this. We tend to throw numbers and facts around but don't cite the sources where they come from. So people read them and it becomes truth even if it may not be documented anywhere.

Thanks again!

Matt


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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Jim O'Bryan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:09 am

Matthew Lee wrote:
Jim O'Bryan wrote:Which would be underlined by Heinen's Downtown being the worst performing Henien's in the chain.


Hi Jim, appreciate digging on the numbers but wondering where the above info came from. I did some, albeit very quick, Googling and could not find anything documenting the above statement. Is this something you know from others or is it published somewhere?

My apologies if I seem harsh with some of this. We tend to throw numbers and facts around but don't cite the sources where they come from. So people read them and it becomes truth even if it may not be documented anywhere.

Thanks again!

Matt


Matt no problem

The chart is from a recent cleveland.com article on the migration out of Cleveland, the other numbers come from a study of Levin College that certainly reads like a Dr. Byers aka Dr. Death piece that was probably put together before his retirement. IT should be remembered that Dr. Byers was the person Steve Davis called for his piece on one of the few things that made Lakewood desireable over the recent of the county was our great services, like backyard trash pick-up, full employment, and our health department. All of which have been cut or completely gotten rid of by Mayor FitzGerald and Mayor Summers.

Do a search for "migration out" There are also a couple other studies that are so troubling I did not use or quote from them, but are worth your time to read.

In a county that has truly lost its way, is a shining City on the Hill next to a Canyon the color of Emeralds, whose elected leaders and so called civic leaders are set on destroying itself. As pointed out in another thread, change is sometimes good, sometimes bad, and while many fight change, sometimes sitting, observing the others, seeing what is actually going on is the best, the safest, and most intelligent thing to do. Also sometimes the hardest.

What I believe we are witnessing here in Lakewood, and perhaps the entire county is blind desperation designed to keep people off balance and from noticing their failures.

.


Jim O'Bryan
Lakewood Resident

"The very act of observing disturbs the system."
Werner Heisenberg

"If anything I've said seems useful to you, I'm glad.
If not, don't worry. Just forget about it."
His Holiness The Dalai Lama
Mark Kindt
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Mark Kindt » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:33 am

Matthew Lee wrote:
Jim O'Bryan wrote:Which would be underlined by Heinen's Downtown being the worst performing Henien's in the chain.


Hi Jim, appreciate digging on the numbers but wondering where the above info came from. I did some, albeit very quick, Googling and could not find anything documenting the above statement. Is this something you know from others or is it published somewhere?

My apologies if I seem harsh with some of this. We tend to throw numbers and facts around but don't cite the sources where they come from. So people read them and it becomes truth even if it may not be documented anywhere.

Thanks again!

Matt


Mr. Lee, the Observation Deck is actually one of our better sources of actual public documents and public documents that reflect financial/numerical/poiicy data. I frequently write about these issues and I do not write anything that I cannot support or cannot quantify from source documents.

Only a very few individual actually write in this forum and they are courteous, informed, and professional.

If you think that I have failed to substantiate any of my stated positions, I will be happy to provide any additional documentation or support that you require. Just ask.

I'm sure that other writers will do the same.


"The citizens of Lakewood rightfully expect their government of elected and appointed officials, and their employees to behave legally and ethically following principles of open government." Third Amended Charter, Article 8.1(a).
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Jim O'Bryan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:46 am

Mark Kindt wrote:Matt


Mr. Lee, the Observation Deck is actually one of our better sources of actual public documents and public documents that reflect financial/numerical/poiicy data. I frequently write about these issues and I do not write anything that I cannot support or cannot quantify from source documents.

Only a very few individual actually write in this forum and they are courteous, informed, and professional.

If you think that I have failed to substantiate any of my stated positions, I will be happy to provide any additional documentation or support that you require. Just ask.

I'm sure that other writers will do the same.[/quote]

Mark

No one is doubting your words. Matt seems to want to hold me accountable for simple friendly conversations I have with others, for not demanding numbers, bibliographies and footnotes. While I find that a terrible way to have a discussion over with coffee with someone I barely know but has far better credentials than I, perhaps it is the way Matt rolls.

What I find funny is 1) Matt does not hold elected officials accountable for their lies err misrepresentations. 2) I have not seen him on any other board holding anyone else accountable for known lies and misstatements. But finds it necessary to grill me. Over the years I have grown used to it, and see it for what it is.

Also I am glad to look the stuff up on my own, it was somewhat disheartening to see the county is losing 15 people a day, not the 5 I spoke of. Perhaps Matt has also seen the other studies that paint Lakewood in a very bad light with charts graphs numbers etc. That I choose not to bring up.

I would also like to see what Matt comes up with with cities that have succeeded after artificially being seeded with economic development and how it worked for them. Huron, failure, Port Clinton, failure, Sandusky, failure, Willoghby, failure, Niles, failure, Westlake, failure and living nightmare as the puppet now controls the puppeteer. North Olmsted, failure, Cleveland failure, Cuyahoga County failure and that is with the largest and oldest non-profit dedicated solely to making the community better running the show. Meanwhile organic growth.

Mark I do not think anyone doubts you, and your constant display of documents and paperwork that has proven just how poorly run City Hall is. Or that it is a borderline criminal enterprise. Well I know one asshole does, but he lies about damn near everything including the Observer. But Matt never question him.

.


Jim O'Bryan
Lakewood Resident

"The very act of observing disturbs the system."
Werner Heisenberg

"If anything I've said seems useful to you, I'm glad.
If not, don't worry. Just forget about it."
His Holiness The Dalai Lama
Matthew Lee
Posts: 412
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 3:15 am

Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Matthew Lee » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:42 pm

Mark, please know that I am not questioning anything you specifically have done. My apologies for painting a broad brush.

Jim, it is not up to me to disprove the facts that you are saying. If you are going to quote something like 85%, it would be nice to back it up. If you think that is being mean-spirited, there is nothing I can do. If you think this is me "grilling" you, there is nothing I can do.

What I find interesting is that when you are questioned on facts, you come back with "well, how about all the other liars". I am not responsible for questioning others and find it odd that you feel I am "grilling" you when all I am asking is where the numbers come from. If you don't have a source for the numbers, just say so.


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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Jim O'Bryan » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:32 am

Matthew Lee wrote:Mark, please know that I am not questioning anything you specifically have done. My apologies for painting a broad brush.

Jim, it is not up to me to disprove the facts that you are saying. If you are going to quote something like 85%, it would be nice to back it up. If you think that is being mean-spirited, there is nothing I can do. If you think this is me "grilling" you, there is nothing I can do.

What I find interesting is that when you are questioned on facts, you come back with "well, how about all the other liars". I am not responsible for questioning others and find it odd that you feel I am "grilling" you when all I am asking is where the numbers come from. If you don't have a source for the numbers, just say so.



Matt

I am not coming back with "what about the other liars" merely your acceptance of them it was also directed to Mark, and the people questioning his facts.

What you were doing is questioning a conversation I had with a person I did not know before the conversation. But said they worked with a large foundation, which checked out to be true. Who said they were working on a presentation about Lakewood Hospital money and foundations, which checked out to be true.

Until that time, which I image will be soon, let's look and find success stories, and I have tried. I suppose you are not up to that either, but I will go back. So let's look at how many inner ring suburbs, in a county that is losing 15 people a day, with at least 10 other communities in the immediate area were successful trying the same thing they were all doing? For that actually has much more relevance than finding out what happened or did not work in Mason City, Iowa, Harrold, South Dakota, have to do with Lakewood, which is up against much more.

STOP THE PRESSES! I am starting to wade through some larger studies like http://www.philadelphiacontroller.org/uploads/press_releases/tax-abatement-analysis-final-final.pdf while I await any answer. Give it a read, it could point out to just how nebulous the answer could be, or that it is hard to track based on "artificial" seeding. It also offers other insight like $1.9 billion, to get back 93 million, might not be bad, considering it could have been far worse. They also look at crime reduction, hip trends outside the abatement, etc. So might have to enlarge the conversation if you care about more than 85%.

.


Jim O'Bryan
Lakewood Resident

"The very act of observing disturbs the system."
Werner Heisenberg

"If anything I've said seems useful to you, I'm glad.
If not, don't worry. Just forget about it."
His Holiness The Dalai Lama
Gary Rice
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Re: Mixed Use / Mixed Results

Postby Gary Rice » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:05 am

Let's go from the macro to the micro for a moment here. :shock:

Yes, I know that I have this tendency to present the positive side of things. :D

That's just my nature, I guess, but if you want good facts, here are a few of my own. :D

Houses around here, in the middle of Lakewood where I live, have been selling for breathtaking prices lately. Just the other day, across the street from me, a nice couple moved in with a young toddler. This is a wonderful and ongoing pattern that I've seen ever since coming to Lakewood in 1958. What a GREAT starter community we have, and continue to have! Everything is close by. Parks are still fun for the kids, and our schools continue to pour out countless successful student experiences for an eclectic student body, despite significant challenges that have come along. Police and fire services are outstanding, and whatever problems do come along, our community faces them head on. That's just the way we do things here.

Here in Lakewood, we have wealthy and not-so-wealthy and to a large degree, not only do we co-exist, we generally share a tremendous symbiotic mutualism. :D

Even looking at the elephant in the room here; losing our hospital WAS a HUGE pain and we all certainly feel it. At the same time, if we move beyond the blame game, we know that we do continue to have numerous top-shelf medical offices and facilities close by, including a great hospital just a scant couple of miles from us, and several other top shelf hospitals within a few more miles of us. Many, if not most other Northeastern Ohio communities would probably love to be in our still-advantageous medical position.

Old real estate pros used to say that location was everything. That, Lakewood has indeed.

It's not that I mean to downplay or discount any of the significant local issues that so many well-meaning people have raised in the last few years either. It's simply that through all of that, we have, as a community, not only survived, but we ARE working through those issues remarkably, and I truly believe, are coming out stronger for all of this.

Lakewood continues to be very attractive to people and businesses in a highly competitive way, and the facts prove that statement hands down. In this part of of the country, whatever the declining trends and graphs are saying, that's a very significant bottom line indeed. :D

Back to the banjo. :D



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